MD & DC Metro Residential Real Estate Update
The fall housing market just crossed a psychological line.
Mortgage rates are back above 7%.
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% last week and 6.76% just two weeks ago.
At the same time, fresh August housing data shows activity slowing across Montgomery County and Washington, DC, while Maryland continues to struggle with an unusual problem:
Buyer demand is slowing—but so is the number of homeowners willing to sell.
Nationally, the story is different. Inventory continues rebuilding and now exceeds 1.17 million active listings.
Put it together and this isn’t simply a buyer’s market or seller’s market.
It’s a leverage market.
And the leverage changes depending on the house.
Market Theme #1: Mortgage Rates Cross 7%
Let’s start with the number everyone is going to talk about.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% as of September 24, according to Freddie Mac.
That’s up from:
- 6.95% last week
- 6.76% two weeks ago
- 6.71% three weeks ago
The 15-year fixed rate also jumped to 6.42%, up from 6.26% last week.
A year ago, the 30-year average was 6.30%.
That means rates have risen 37 basis points in only two weeks.
And that isn’t just a headline.
It changes purchasing power.
For someone borrowing $600,000 on a 30-year loan, the difference between 6.50% and 7.03% is roughly $210 per month in principal and interest.
On an $800,000 mortgage, it’s roughly $280 per month.
That’s real money.
So buyers shouldn’t simply ask:
“What house can I afford?”
Ask:
“What monthly payment allows me to own this house and still enjoy my life?”
That’s the number that matters.
Market Theme #2: Montgomery County and DC Are Slowing
Fresh August statistics from GCAAR, based on Bright MLS data, describe the local market as slowing alongside the broader national market.
That’s consistent with what we’ve been watching develop throughout the summer:
- More buyer selectivity
- Longer decision-making
- More sensitivity to condition
- Greater scrutiny of pricing
- Less urgency around average listings
This doesn’t mean desirable homes suddenly stopped selling.
It means average homes no longer receive exceptional treatment simply because inventory is limited.
That distinction matters.
A beautifully prepared, correctly priced house in North Potomac may still attract multiple interested buyers.
A dated property priced as though it were beautifully renovated?
Different conversation.
Market Theme #3: Maryland’s Inventory Problem Isn’t Going Away
The statewide Maryland numbers remain especially interesting.
Maryland recorded 5,582 home sales in August, down 8.5% from last year.
Pending sales declined 1.0%, ending 12 consecutive months of year-over-year gains.
But prices didn’t collapse.
Maryland’s median sale price actually increased 2.3% to $445,000.
Why?
One major reason is supply.
Only 6,249 homes were newly listed in August, a staggering 23.6% decline from August 2025.
Active inventory totaled 16,897 homes—13.7% below last year.
Maryland had approximately three months of housing supply, compared with 3.5 months a year ago.
So we’re seeing:
Lower demand + lower supply = surprisingly resilient prices.
That’s the tug-of-war defining Maryland housing right now.
🇺🇸 Market Theme #4: National Inventory Is Moving in the Opposite Direction
Nationally, buyers are getting considerably more choices.
Realtor.com’s latest weekly housing data shows active inventory increased 5.8% year over year during the week ending September 19.
There are now more than 1.17 million active listings, near the highest level since late 2019.
Meanwhile:
- New listings increased 0.9% YoY
- Median asking price declined 1.3%
- Typical marketing time was 61 days
- Homes actually sold about one day faster than the same week last year
That last number is interesting.
Despite higher mortgage rates and increased inventory, active buyers are still absorbing desirable inventory.
In other words:
The buyers who remain in the market appear serious.
Market Theme #5: More Inventory Isn’t Producing a Housing Crash
National Association of REALTORS® data provides another useful reality check.
August existing-home sales declined 2.0% from July and 1.2% from last year.
Inventory increased to 1.62 million homes, the first time it exceeded 1.6 million since November 2019.
That represents 4.9 months of housing supply—the highest level in more than a decade.
Yet the national median existing-home price still increased 1.6% year over year to $429,100.
That’s worth repeating.
More inventory does not automatically equal falling prices.
What it usually does first is give buyers more choice.
Then buyers become more selective.
Then sellers have to compete harder.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
Market Theme #6: Contracts Are Still Being Written—But Below Last Year’s Pace
National pending-home sales increased 0.3% from July to August.
That’s encouraging.
But they remained 4.7% below August 2025, with year-over-year declines across all four major U.S. regions.
That suggests buyer demand hasn’t disappeared.
It’s constrained.
There’s a difference.
Buyers still want homes.
Some simply can’t make the payment work at today’s combination of price and mortgage rate.
That’s why affordability—not necessarily consumer desire—is the bigger story.
Local Market Snapshot
Rockville
Rockville continues to benefit from Metro access, employment centers, established neighborhoods, schools, parks and amenities.
But buyers now have enough alternatives that pricing against the last sale alone isn’t sufficient.
Sellers should pay just as much attention to:
What else can my buyer purchase today?
That’s your real competition.
North Potomac
North Potomac remains relatively supply constrained, particularly among desirable detached homes.
Well-prepared properties can still generate significant attention.
But buyers in the $800,000–$1.5 million range are increasingly sensitive to renovation costs.
They’re not just looking at the purchase price.
They’re calculating:
Purchase price + mortgage + renovations + taxes + maintenance.
And suddenly that dated kitchen gets expensive.
Gaithersburg
Gaithersburg’s diverse housing stock gives buyers considerable ability to comparison shop.
Renovated townhouses and detached homes can perform very differently from dated properties.
Sellers don’t necessarily need to renovate everything.
But the price needs to acknowledge what the buyer will need to spend afterward.
Silver Spring
Silver Spring continues to behave like several markets inside one geographic area.
Close-in neighborhoods, Metro-accessible communities, condos, townhouses and detached homes can produce dramatically different outcomes.
Broad statistics are useful.
Neighborhood-level comparable sales are better.
Potomac
Luxury buyers still exist.
What they’re increasingly lacking is urgency.
A buyer spending $1.5 million or $2 million usually has options.
That makes premium preparation, photography, marketing and pricing increasingly important.
Premium price requires premium execution.
Germantown
Germantown’s relative affordability remains an important advantage.
When mortgage rates exceed 7%, buyers who want Montgomery County but need more manageable monthly payments may expand their searches north.
That can support demand here even as the broader market cools.
Olney
Olney continues benefiting from comparatively limited turnover and demand for established detached-home communities.
Turnkey inventory can still perform strongly.
But buyers are becoming more deliberate about value.
Damascus
Damascus continues offering an attractive combination of detached housing, space and relative affordability.
When financing becomes more expensive, the ability to get more house for the purchase price becomes increasingly meaningful.
Frederick County
Frederick remains an important alternative for buyers seeking additional space and affordability.
But the broader increase in available housing means Frederick sellers also need to compete.
Being cheaper than Montgomery County isn’t a marketing strategy by itself.
Prince George’s County
Relative affordability remains a major strength.
Properties accumulating market time can present meaningful negotiating opportunities for buyers—particularly where sellers originally entered the market too aggressively.
Howard County
Howard County continues benefiting from established communities, employment access, schools and its location between Washington and Baltimore.
As elsewhere, turnkey inventory and correctly priced homes can behave very differently from properties requiring substantial immediate investment.
Washington, DC
DC continues to offer more negotiating opportunities than many supply-constrained Maryland communities.
Buyers should be particularly analytical when evaluating condos.
Look beyond purchase price at:
- Condo fees
- Reserves
- Special assessments
- Building maintenance
- Insurance
- Pending litigation
- Competing listings
- Days on market
The cheapest condo isn’t necessarily the best deal.
Sometimes it’s cheap for a reason.
What This Means for Buyers
Seven-percent mortgage rates are frustrating.
But they don’t eliminate opportunity.
The better question isn’t:
“Should I buy because rates are high?”
or
“Should I wait because rates might fall?”
Nobody knows exactly what rates will do.
Instead ask:
Does this particular purchase make sense for me at today’s numbers?
And negotiate the entire transaction.
That may include:
- Purchase price
- Seller closing-cost assistance
- Mortgage-rate buydown
- Repairs
- Inspection protections
- Settlement timing
- Personal property
- Contingencies
A seller credit that lowers your borrowing cost may sometimes help more than the same reduction in purchase price.
Run the numbers before choosing the strategy.
What This Means for Sellers
Maryland sellers still have something valuable:
Limited competition.
But don’t confuse limited supply with unlimited pricing power.
The buyer financing your home at 7.03% is living in a very different affordability environment than the buyer who financed at 3%.
That buyer will scrutinize value.
So do the basics exceptionally well:
- Price accurately
- Prepare the property
- Fix obvious problems
- Stage thoughtfully
- Use professional photography
- Market aggressively
- Make showings easy
- Respond quickly to feedback
There isn’t a secret trick here.
Do fewer things, better.
5 Practical Takeaways
1. Mortgage rates crossed 7%
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average reached 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week.
2. Maryland sales are slowing
August closed sales declined 8.5% year over year, while pending contracts declined 1.0%.
3. Maryland sellers aren’t listing
New listings plunged 23.6% year over year, helping keep statewide inventory 13.7% below last year.
4. National inventory continues rebuilding
Realtor.com reports active inventory 5.8% higher than last year, with more than 1.17 million homes available.
5. Prices remain surprisingly resilient
Despite weaker sales and higher inventory nationally, the median existing-home price increased 1.6% year over year in August.
Bottom Line
Here’s the market in one sentence:
Buyers are gaining leverage on houses while losing purchasing power to interest rates.
That’s the tension defining fall 2026.
Maryland still doesn’t have enough sellers.
Nationally, inventory is rebuilding.
Montgomery County and DC are slowing.
And mortgage rates have climbed back above 7%.
That doesn’t mean buyers should stop buying.
It doesn’t mean sellers should rush to sell.
It means strategy matters more.
For buyers: understand the payment, identify where leverage exists and negotiate the entire transaction.
For sellers: recognize that limited inventory can help you—but it won’t rescue an overpriced or poorly prepared listing.
The easy market rewarded participation.
This market rewards preparation.
And frankly, that’s how it should be.
Sources & Reference Links
The September 25 report uses Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released September 24. Freddie Mac reported a 7.03% 30-year fixed average and a 6.42% 15-year average.
Fresh Maryland data comes from Maryland REALTORS® August 2026 Housing Statistics. August recorded 5,582 closed sales, a $445,000 median sale price, 5,786 pending sales, 6,249 new listings and 16,897 active listings.
The latest local Montgomery County and Washington, DC reporting comes from GCAAR’s housing-market reporting, which released its August 2026 statistics on September 21. GCAAR’s local statistics are based on Bright MLS data.
The national weekly inventory comparison comes from Realtor.com’s Weekly Housing Trends report for the week ending September 19, published September 24.
National closed-sale and inventory statistics come from National Association of REALTORS® August Existing-Home Sales report, while forward-looking contract activity comes from NAR’s August Pending Home Sales report.
The latest available Washington regional closed-sale analysis remains the Homes.com Washington DC Housing Market Report.
Different housing-data providers use different geographic boundaries and methodologies. Maryland statewide, Washington metro, Montgomery County, Washington DC and national statistics should therefore be interpreted independently rather than combined as though they represent identical populations. Local city observations above are professional interpretations of broader county and regional trends unless a specific city-level statistic is expressly identified.
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